July2015

Where Have All The Hitters Gone?

July 22, 2015

By Terrance Hansen, USA

 

I have tracked the American players over the last 12 months.  Below are my feelings, as an American fan, on the United States biggest obstacle with putting together a successful fastpitch team to medal at one of the international events. I have also added my past posts regarding American player rankings, etc..
 
There is always controversy surrounding the selection of a national team. Whether it is soccer, volleyball or softball, if a national team does not make Gold at its event, speculation of who should be on the team and who should not, start to eruct from the masses. For the first time in history, the United States Men's National team did not qualify for the playoff round of the WBSC (formerly the ISF). The failure to reach the playoff round began speculation of players that were omitted from the team, and with that criticism comes the common opinion within our border that the United States’ lack of pitching is the main issue with not being a dominant force as it was in the 60s, 70s, 80s and much of the 90s.
 
While this consensus of a lack of pitching development in comparison with countries like Canada, New Zealand or Australia is true and an issue, the pitching at the WBSC and the Pan American games by the U.S. was excellent. For instance, Tony Mancha led all pitchers in preliminary ERA at the Pan American games including allowing one run to Venezuela, who was a  silver medalists at both events this summer. The American’s defense has also been above par. The issue they have had has been in scoring runs. The U.S. men's national team batted .194 in Argentina last November at the Qualifier and hit just over .200 in the preliminary round of the WBSC in late June. In the fall, I put together my list of the top American players. I then used hitting stats against national team pitchers from the ISC, ASA and Pan Am Qualifier to compare my subjective list with actual performance. Also, looking at the players selected for the WBSC vs available players not selected was something I wanted to look at to see how they differed and if the selection committee was failing at identifying players or if there was just a lack of American players on the fastpitch circuit that could hit elite level pitchers.
 
What I found by evaluating the hitters was that the USMNT players only hit .211 in the past 12 months against NTPs and this includes the ISC and ASA and how they performed with their club teams.  Although the USMNT who competed in the WBSC only hit .211 and has caused some in the States to say, “they only hit .211, we need new hitters.  There has got to be a better hitting crew out there.”  It should be noted that the NON-WBSC players in the mix for the USMNT only hit .227 over the last 12 months. Not performing much better. That average is less than one hit per game if you totaled all of the games for the USMNT.  Hitting top level pitching is a unique skill and the Americans, as a whole, do it poorly. Or at least they did over the last 12 months.  Granted, when one faces the best of the best, when pitchers like Adam Folkard or Ramone Jones are throwing, hits are at a minimum even for the top players in the world. The 26 players on the USMNT or players “in the mix” for the national team based on ball park chatter and other did not impress and is, in my opinion, the main factor for the U.S. lack of medals and success at the two events this summer. It should be noted that the combined average of the 26 players on or in the mix for the USMNT was .214 over the last 12 months at the ASA, ISC, Pan Am Qualifier, WBSC and Pan Ams against NTP’s. It has not been the lack of world class pitching as most would argue.  Already accounting for Mancha’s performance, both Muizellar and Johnson exceeded expectations for their country in the circle with one of the top ERA’s at both events this summer. 
 
So what does the American selection committee do to find better hitters from the group of “in the mix” players or other players? Or, are there no players available that CAN hit well against the best of the best? Or does our selection committee need to dig deeper and find hitters that have the talent to hit, then make sure they are facing top level elite pitching consistently? The NON-USMNT hitters listed below DID in fact bat better against NTPs.  While one could argue that the NON-USMNT players did not have as many at bats against NTPs, they did face the best in the world at the ISC and ASA. The elite of the NTPs like Jones, Folkard, Potolichio,and Cleary all pitch at those events. Meanwhile, the USMNT players also faced those pitchers but had the advantage of facing weaker pitching from the Netherlands, the Phillipines, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic and Mexico as an example when comparing the two groups. On the flip side of that though, while they did face those weaker pitchers from the aforementioned countries, the pressure of playing for your country is more than playing for your club team and could factor in to the lower average.  In the end though, Sixteen points better is not much of a difference and would probably not account for many more, if any more runs.  Where are the American hitters who can hit open level pitching?  The committee will have to search and search to find that unique talent. There are obviously tweaks here and there they can make on the roster but either way, in the end there seems to be a lack of American players who hit well against NTPs and is the main reason the U.S.A has not had the success of past national teams in this fan/writer’s perspective.  
 
How American Hitters Fared Against National Team Pitchers At The Following In The Last 12 Months: ASA/ISC/PAQ/WBSC/PA (NON-USMNT players and pitchers they faced are in parentheses at ASA & ISC as they did not face all of the NTPs at two major events this summer as the USMNT did).
 
*Some players' numbers changed from November as a couple of pitchers were added to national teams after they had faced them in previous events and I had tallied their stats.
 
1. Tom Crouch 6/15 .400 (Jones, Folkard, Godoy, Gervasutti, Koert, McCullough, Peters, Montero, Muizellar)
2. Eddy Kettelhut 5/17 .294 (Pottolichio, Folkard, Unrbeneja, Koert, Goodall)
3. Frank Degroat 8/29 .276
4. John Rozich 5/18 .278 (Folkard, Montero, Jones, Mancha, Johnson and Pan Am Qualifier pitchers in Argentina)
5. Fred Carmona 9/35 .257
6. Tyler Dudley 3/11 .273 (Godoy, Mancha , Sabate, McCullough)
7. Matt Palazzo 22/82 .268
8. Chris Miljavic 18/75 .240
9. Kris Bogach 10/42 .238
10, Josh Johnson 15/65 .231
11. Chris Heinline 5/22 .227
12. Bobby Rostenhuasler 4/18 .222
13. Chase Turner 15/69 .217
14. Derrick Kennedy 3/14 .214 (Pottolichio, Koert, Kirkpatrick, Mancha)
15. Jenner Christiansen 2/10 .200 (Peters, Jones, Kirkpatrick, McCullough)
16 Derrick Zechman 14/71 .197
17. Mike Hoadley 3/16 .188 (Pottolichio, Koert, Mancha)
18. Nate Devine 9/51 .176
19. Pat Sagdal 9/55 .164
20. Nick Mullins 8/49 .163
21. Kevin Castillo 3/19 .158
22. Tony Mancha 2/13 .154
23. BJ Gullick 1/9 .111 (Goodall, Haldane, Mancha, Pottolichio, Urbeneja)
24. Trevor Kelly 1/10 .100 (Sabate, Godoy, Mancha, Haldane)
25. Lucas Goring 3/31 .097 (Jones, Montero, Peters, Folkard, Godoy, Muizellar, McCullugh, Jones, Gervasutti, Pottolichio, Koert and Pan Am Qualifier pitchers in Argentina)
26. Marcus Tan 3/31 .067
 
The following pitchers of note are recognized as NTPs who pitched in one event for their country at any of the following in the past year: Pan Am Qualifier, Oceania Qualifier, Pan American Games, WBSC:.
Folkard
Kirkpatrick
Peters
Haldane
Goodall
Darby
Muizellar
Mancha
Johnson
Schollum
Shannon
Enoka
Hayes
Skelton
McCullough
Scott
Mayson
Koert
Jones
Montero
Urbeneja
Escobar
Diaz
Colombo
Gervasutti
Godoy
L. Mata
H. Mata
Linton
Oldis
Jetmar
Pidia
Anderson
Harris
Segura
Cleary
Volquez
Garrity
Matsuda

 

ISC, ASA & Pan Am Stats of American Players vs National Team Pitching in 2014

Sunday, November 30, 2014
ISC, ASA & Pan Am Stats of American Players vs National Team Pitching in 2014

In an effort to continually evaluate the American players considered to be the best in the country, I have put together another list with the 2014 ISC, ASA Men's Major and Pan American stats.  I retrieved the ISC and Pan Am stats from their respective web sites.. I kept score of the American players vs national team pitchers in South Bend at the ASA's.  I do this all as a semi-hobby in retirement.  I did have to go to the booth and team scorekeepers in South Bend once or twice as sometimes there were two games going on at the same time while I scored. Remember, these are the stats at these tournaments against national team pitchers ONLY. They do not include the overall stats but only those against the aforementioned level..
These three "best of the best"  tournaments allowed me to compare my subjective list, that was published in September, to the statistics of these players against big time pitching to add some objectivity.

While other variables for my September rankings were taken into account such as defense, speed, intangibles and leadership, the ASA, ISC and Pan Am offensive statistics capture their the ability to hit open level pitching.  I was motivated to do this after reading Mark Sampson's statistics of how these players did at the ISC against national team pitchers on Mr. Al Doran's web site earlier this month.

Carmona, Crouch, Palazzo and Johnson continue to be at the top of all the lists. Bogach, who was not on my top ten list in September but hit well in 2014 against national team pitchers. Rozich, DeGroat, Dudley, Miljavic and Sagdal finished out the top ten. 

Here are the 2014 stats against national team pitchers at the ISC, ASA and Pan Ams. My September rankings are in parentheses:
*1.Fred Carmona ..533 8-15 (#5 on my September list)
*2. Tom Crouch .461 6-13 (#6 on my September list)
3. Kris Bogach .294 5-17 (#13 on my September list
4. Matt Palazzo .293 12-41 (#1 on my September list)
5. Jon Rozich .278 5-18 (#8 on my September list)
6. Josh Johnson .278 10-36 (#3 on my September list)
7. Frank DeGroat .273 6-22 (#15 on my September list)
8. Tyler Dudley .273 3-11 (#11 on my September list)
9.  Chris Miljavic .270 10-37 (#12 on my September list)
10. Pat Sagdal .226 7-31 (#18 on my September list)
11. Chase Turner .216 8-37 (#20 on my September list)
*12. Derrick Kennedy.214 3-14 (no ranking)
*13. Jenner Christensen .200 2-10 (no ranking)
14.  Nate Devine .192 5-36 (no ranking)
*15. Mike Hoadley .188 3-16 (no ranking)
16. Nick Mullins .167 4-24 (#10 on my September list)
*17.Kevin Castillo .167 3-18 (#17 on my September list)
18. Derrick Zechman .158 4-38 (#2 on my September list)
19. Lucas Goring  .097 3-31 (#7 on my September list)
20. Bobby Rostenhauser .111 4-18 (#19 on my September list)
*21. BJ Gullick .111 1-9 (#9 on my September list)
*22. Trevor Kelly .100 1-10 (#4 on my September list)
*23. Chris Heinline .100 1-10 (#16 on my September list)
24. Tan .042 1-24  (no ranking)
*Pan Am stats not applicable.

Terrance Hansen
Hansent11@juno.com

Here was my September rankings without stats:
Best American Player Update-Press Release 

Saturday, September 6, 2014
I put out my American Player Rankings in December of 2013.  Since that time, there has been a survey that seemed to have a very popular following with, in most cases, over 200 people filling out each survey.  Thus, giving it some validity in regards to what the general public/players have to say about each player.  Also, I watched a few tournaments out East and Canada and also attended the magnificently run ASA and ISC tournaments.  My goal was to re-evaluate the American players I observed against the top talent in the world (ASA & ISC).  There are some new players on my list from December, some players that fell off the list and a couple that have many wondering how they are not national team members.

I have included a new "Top american Player List" with my prior rankings denoted as APR along with the results shared with the public from the "Fastpitch guys' surveys in the spring.  I have also made the list longer.

1. Matt Palazzo (APR-1) (Survey-8th best infielder in the game) Best American hitter and nothing has changed.  continues to be a threat and game changer.  Might be one of the top 4-5 hitters in the world.  This was easy to list him as the best.

2. Derrick Zechman (APR-6) (Survey-NA) Zechman is a very underrated defensive player.  Have talked to a few that think he is weak defensively but makes big plays in clutch situations.  Speaking of clutch, he may be one of the most clutch hitters in the game today.  Has carried the PA Power team at times and seems to be a natural leader.  Is very unorthodox but is better fundamentally than one would think.

3. Josh Johnson (APR-2) (Survey-10th best two way player in the game) Johnson's power is his biggest threat.  He has a sweet swing and his ability to pitch make him one of the top players in the united States.  While he didn't seem to throw particularly well, he also plays in the outfield and is more than serviceable.  He seems to be the second best hitter in the U.S..

4. Trevor Kelly (APR-8) (Survey-NA) Probably didn't do well on the survey because he plays many positions.  He catches, He plays 3B and I have heard he plays OF as well.  I'm not certain he has a "best position.".  He had a poor ASA when I saw him but looked great at the ISC.  He moved up on my list because of his defensive versatility and strong hitting.  What a great asset to Team USA to have a guy that plays multiple positions well and can hit the top guys.  I am uncertain how he hits top pitching because he plays on a mid level team and he didn't see great pitching at either ISC or ASA but did see him go 2-3 off Regan Manley.

5. Fred Carmona (APR-NA) (Survey-NA) Carmona came out of nowhere and player great at teh ISC.  he hit all the top pitching that I saw.  Not sure if he plays anywhere other than catcher but seemed to do well there.  Diamond in the rough and was surprised to see him not make the USA Team.  Seems like he would have been a lock at the catcher position.

6. Tommy Crouch (APR-4) (Survey-9th best infielder in the game) Crouch plays multiple positions but is excellent in the infield. Like most fans, was shocked to not see him on the USA roster.  I saw him hit multiple national team pitchers like Folkard, Muziellar, and Koert well in ASA/ISC.  Versatile defensive player that hits top level pitching as well as anyone outside of Johnson & Palazzo.  

7. Lucas Goring (APR-5) (Survey-NA) Tough out with great speed.  Doesn't impress much defensively and is why he is not higher on my list but he is one of the best slap hitters/bunters in the game.  Was a spark plug in the games I saw Circle Tap play at ASA and ISC.  Hits for power occasionally, but is a top level small ball threat. 

8. John Rozich (APR-NA) (Survey-NA) New to my list.  I had heard of him from a few years back but made splash with the Gremlins this summer.  Hits for power and average and plays a good OF and catches from what i understand.  Had a terrific ISC both offensively and defensively.  Very deserving of all-world honors.  Is a long-ball threat and hits top pitchers well.  Athletic for a bigger guy as well.

9. BJ Gullick (APR-7) (Survey-NA) Gullick seems streaky but hits top level pitching even though he did not seem to hit well at the ISC. Not sure of his best position but seems serviceable in OF.  He, like Crouch and Carmona, is another player who has many wondering why he's not on the national team.  Easily on the top ten list.

10.  Nick Mullins (APR-10) (Survey-NA).  Mullins made some of the better plays at SS that I have seen in South Bend.  Is a fantastic middle infielder and plays other positions as well.  He would be higher on the list but have not seen him hit well at many events against the top tier throwers.

11. Tyler Dudley (APR-NA) (Survey-NA) Another new player on my list.  Dudley is a slick fielder who hits as well as any American player I have seen. Had a great ASA and ISC.  I am not sure how well he hits the top level pitchers because I did not see him against that level but he certainly made an impression against the lower teams they played at the two events.  Seems a bit brash and may be a reason he's not considered for the national team.

12. Chris Miljavic (APR-NA) (Survey-NA) Miljavic is still a tough out and can hit for power like he did at ASA tournament.  He is not as strong an infielder as some of the others on the list but does a fine job at 2B.  He seems to be streaky but is one of the scrappier hitters in the game.

13. Kris Bogach
14. Eddy Kettlehutt
15. Frank Degroat
16. Chris Hineline
17. Kevin Castillo
18.. Pat Sagdahl
19. Bob Rostenhausler
20. Chase Turner
 
 
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